Session Lead: David Abler (Penn State)
Co-Lead(s): Lisa Wainger (UMCES)
Session Format: Oral Presentations
Session Description:
This session will explore the effects of changing biophysical and social conditions on agricultural systems and environmental outcomes in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) using a scenario-based approach. The session will describe how stakeholders representing a diverse set of organizations including farms, agribusinesses, nonprofits, government agencies, and academia can develop narrative scenarios for how the future of agriculture in the CBW could be or should be. The session will examine how these narrative future scenarios can be converted into quantitative scenarios for use by modelers evaluating future environmental and agricultural outcomes. The session will also examine approaches used to select and scale quantitative future projections from disparate sources and apply data to scenarios. The session will discuss results from scenario modeling using ecohydrological models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and economic models such as the Regional Environment and Agriculture Programming (REAP) model.
Presentations (abstracts):
- Lisa A Wainger, Dave Abler: Co-developing future land use and management scenarios to explore resilience of agro-ecological systems under uncertainty
- Edem Avemegah, Jessica D. Ulrich-Schad: Residents’ Support for Varied Scenarios for Agricultural Systems in Urbanized Landscapes
- Kalra Marali, Raj Cibin: Impacts of cover cropping on soil and water ecosystem services in the Susquehanna River Basin
- Chenyang Hu, Darrell Bosch, Wei Zhang: Extensive vs. Intensive Margin Approach of N Load Reduction from Agriculture: Implications for Chesapeake Bay Watershed
- Rashid Ansari: Enhanced Flood Adaptation and Nutrient Management: Integrated Modeling for Regional Sustainability
- Jesse Bash, Chris Nolte, Daniel Loughlin, Ben Murphy: Impact of decarbonization scenarios on atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the Chesapeake Bay