Session Lead: Lewis Linker (US EPA Chesapeake Bay Program Office)

Co-Lead(s): Joseph Zhang (VIMS), Gopal Bhatt (Penn State), Gary Shenk (USGS)

Session Format: Oral Presentations

Session Description: 

This session examines new approaches in Chesapeake modeling, monitoring, and assessment of climate change in the watershed, airshed, estuary, and living resource habitats. Ongoing advances in computational power, data availability, and new analysis approaches are leading to higher spatial resolution models with attendant advances in understanding nutrient processes, their transport and fate, and their influence on living resource habitats and in tidal shallow waters.

The emergence of high-resolution data and new approaches in monitoring, modeling, and analyses will be critical building blocks for improved environmental management in the Chesapeake Bay Program. The new approaches will contribute to the next generation of Chesapeake Bay Program management models that will integrate multiple local TMDLs with the Chesapeake TMDL while providing forward looking insights in the management of climate change challenges in the region. Session topics covered include aspects of the improved scale available in next generation models; advances in the analyses of land cover, airshed, watershed, estuary, and habitat simulations of the Chesapeake region; and how they will be leveraged together for better understanding and advancing targeted local and Chesapeake Bay-wide management decisions. Development of climate adapted environmental management for stormwater and nonpoint sources will also be highlighted. The session welcomes presentations and discussions on these wide-ranging topics.

Presentations (abstracts):

  1. Lew Linker, Joseph Zhang, Gopal Bhatt, Richard Tian, Isabella Bertani, Nicole Cai, Joseph Delesantro, and Jesse Bash: Phase 7 Models of the Chesapeake Watershed, Estuary, and Airshed – Exploring Future Challenges of Climate Change and Growth
  2. Gopal Bhatt, Isabella Bertani, Lewis Linker, Robert Burgholzer: Recent advances in the development of a fine-scale Chesapeake Bay watershed model for 2035 Climate Change Assessment
  3. Rashid Ansari: Analyzing Watershed Responses to Climatic and Land Use Changes: Implications for Flood Risk and Nutrient Dynamics in the Susquehanna River Basin
  4. Andrew J. Miller, Mac S Luu: Temporal trends in watershed-average precipitation and streamflow extremes in the Baltimore metropolitan area
  5. Jaleel Shujath: Adapting Stormwater Management to Climate Change: Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Trends in the Chesapeake Watershed
  6. Tori Tomiczek, Liliana Velásquez Montoya, Alex Davies, Gina Henderson, Zoë Johnson, Sara Phillips, Anna Wargula, Cecily Steppe: Sea Level Rise Monitoring and Modeling at the United States Naval Academy for Flood Resilience
  7. Joseph Zhang, Jian Shen: Overview on the Phase 7 Main Bay Model
  8. Zhengui Wang, Joseph Zhang, Jian Shen: Progress on the development of Phase 7 Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Model
  9. Richard Tian, Richard Tian, Zhengui Wang, Gopal Bhatt, Joseph Zhang, Larry Sanford and Lewis Linker: Modeling Wave-driven Shoreline Erosion in the Corsica and Choptank Estuaries, Chesapeake Bay
  10. Kyle Hinson, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs: Response of hypoxia to future climate change is sensitive to methodological assumptions
  11. Colin Hawes, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Pierre St-Laurent, Raymond G. Najjar, Kyle Hinson: Projected impacts of climate-induced changes in the ocean, land, and atmosphere on mid-21st century Chesapeake Bay hypoxia
  12. Julia Abrao Teixeira, Xun (Nicole) Cai, Piero L.F. Mazzini, Qubin Qin, Y. Joseph Zhang: Connectivity, Distribution, and Fate of Microplastics from Mid-Atlantic Bight Estuaries: A Lagrangian Particle Tracking Approach
  13. Harry Wang, Jeremy Testa, Gopal Bhatt, Zheng Jing, Breanna Maldonado, and David Forrest : Fine-scale Patapsco River Tributary Model for Simulating Effect of Sanitation Sewage Overflow under Climate Change Conditions
  14. Qubin Qin, Jian Shen, Xun Cai, Zhengui Wang, Pierre St-Laurent: The transport and retention conditions in the middle-lower Rappahannock River
  15. Jian Zhao, Jiabi Du: Fine scale numerical simulations of the Choptank River in the Chesapeake Bay
  16. Kenneth A Rose, Mark Monaco, Lee McDonnell, Denice Waldrop: More Consideration of Living Resources in Chesapeake  Bay Restoration: “Hail to CESR” or “CESR Salad”